Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'General OT' started by imart, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. rbenzon

    rbenzon Super
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    You missed the gem buried deeply in that Indonesia-centric news article, but you still get partial credit. :)

    Here:

    cases vs travel volume.png
    Those who came here to find masks, ignore this. :)

    But this is the best nCoV data/graph I have seen yet, from a study that correlates the number of confirmed cases with the travel volume between Wuhan and other countries.

    Thailand had a travel volume with Wuhan of 800+ passengers per day, hence, their high case count (32). Indonesia, on the other hand, had a travel volume with Wuhan of close to 100 passengers per day, but has yet to report a confirmed case—which may indicate their inability to detect cases (the main point of the article).

    What the Indonesia-centric article does not mention but is relevant to Filipinos: Philippines' low travel volume with Wuhan explains the low case count (3)—but does not explain Pinoys' Oscar-grade drama. :)

    Bottom line: PH has a lower risk than other countries. Doesn't mean zero risk; just lowers the baseline for lunacy. :)

    Oh, I messaged my half-Japanese friend in Tokyo and asked him if the Japanese were panicking. He said that they were "calm, like it's just another 8.0 quake". :)

    Some suspect that the nCoV came from bats, which may explain why many Pinoys are afflicted with *panic eh*. :D
     
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  2. Kingmaker

    Kingmaker Active Member

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    Panic? What panic? Filipino mall rats came in droves to SM Aura yesterday. Even the virus could not keep them locked up at home. They came in all ages , from those in baby strollers, to senior citizens aided by caregivers, they're all at SM. Most of them had no face masks on them too. Even spotted some Chinese mainlanders, and like their Filipino counterparts, they too did not sport face masks (at least the ones I spotted). It will take a lot more than this pesky virus to keep Filipinos from their favorite pastime.
     
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  3. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mmm......for age 50 and above, a Filipino doctor is advising pneumonia vaccination (pneumococcal vaccination like pneumovax 23 or pneumo 23). According to the WHO, it will not offer immunity against this type of coronavirus. To be clear, there is no cure, antibiotics, vaccine or treatment for this coronavirus including homemade concoction like luya, garlic, alcohol, bleach and others being spread on social media. But, since pneumonia is one of the possible co-infection of this virus, it is a good idea (makes you less susceptible to co-infection). Consult your GP or an IM doc to assess suitability. I already did the shot several days ago and plan to get flu shots after a month. I gave my complete medical history, allergy to certain antibiotics and current prescription meds to my IM. She cleared me for the vax. I was advised to get the branded kind. Wag daw generic. Her words. o_O

    It is not a good idea for those traveling soon as some may experience fever as a side effect of the vaccination. Again, consult your trusted doctor and make a well-informed decision. Research pneumovax and its side effects. Many online resources (pay attention to contraindications and interaction with certain prescription meds) such as MIMS Ph.

    I am waiting for the WHO team report once they are allowed by the Chinese govt. to enter ground zero. Third party verification is needed to answer doubts about the veracity of official data from China.
     
    #263 raypin, Feb 10, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2020
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  4. Sir iAco

    Sir iAco PhilMUG Addict Member
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    The Corona Epidemic – A Dangerous and a Less Dangerous Form
    Andy May / 23 hours ago February 8, 2020
    Guest Post by Wim Röst

    Source: wattsupwiththat.com

    Abstract


    Nearly all the deadly infections of the corona virus are localized in the centre of the epidemic in and near Wuhan in the province of Hubei, China. This analysis leads to two main types of contamination: 1) breathing in the virus after a nearby contaminated person coughs or sneezes and 2) contracting the virus via the fecal-oral route, due to poor hygiene, that is not washing your hands. Of these two methods, the first is very dangerous. From the point of view of epidemics, the second form is potentially as dangerous as the first one. But for most individuals that are treated well the consequence of being contaminated seems to be no more deadly than a normal flu. Even so, the danger for whole populations and even for whole continents remains huge: every infected individual, who is not properly treated, can lead to a huge and dangerous epidemic.

    Current map of Coronavirus 2019 cases in China
     
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  5. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm....that is contrary to the official advise of the DOH: AVOID large crowds.

    https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/12266...ending-concerts-large-events-amid-ncov-threat

    Considering that two well-known malls have foot traffic in excess of 500,000 people during weekends, well, all I can say is it is an epidemiologist’s worst nightmare come true
     
    #265 raypin, Feb 10, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2020
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  6. porkypork

    porkypork Active Member

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    This could be easily resolved by n-JoV = No Jowa on Valentine's
     
  7. Theus

    Theus PhilMUG Addict Member

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  8. Juice

    Juice PhilMUG Addict Member
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    My friend wrote this in his column.
     
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  9. catalysmic

    catalysmic Well-Known Member

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    Quite the opposite at Vikings SM Jazz.. buffet was void of the usual Sunday Dinner crowd.... lots of empty table and private rooms.. not that We're complaining..
     
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  10. hitme64

    hitme64 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Greenhills Shopping Center is the same like anywhere right now. Some people wear masks, some don’t. A lot though bring hand sanitizers and use the complimentary ones in some shops. I’ve seen a couple use rubbing alcohol to, well, rub human parts and in between elsewhere. What is still evident and simply cannot stop happening is how people just continue to throw their trash and litter the ground despite millions of garbage cans. Now if n-CoV were to transmit through thrown trash then we’ll be all dead by now.
     
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  11. imart

    imart PhilMUG Addict Member

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    today is the start of this business continuity thing in our firm and what happens is that my team was split into two. Team A, the most important soldiers, will report to office as usual but Team B will work at home for the rest of the week and i'm writing this on my bedside today.

    the company cautioned us that if taking vacation leaves especially bound overseas especially during this pandemic period, we'll be subject to stringent actions as a welcome gift upon arrival. fair enough.

    so either way, just thinking aloud, if things don't really improve and go even worse (steep increase in ncov cases and even deaths, god forbid), should i decide to leave for manila, i could be tagged as PUI or set to mandatory quarantine there as if considered like those evacuees from wuhan, if measures are in place. or if the same stats are evident in MNL (again, god forbid), I'll get the same upon arrival at changi.

    the challenge is that the company will deduct precious vacation leaves if quarantined (no illness) or worse, will impose no pay leave if vacation leaves are already used up.

    meanwhile, my neighborhood grocery has replenished toilet papers. yun nga lang, 2-ply #firstworldproblems

    the only thing nice about this work from home thing is, of course, home-cooked meals. adobo. afritada. pinoy spaghetti. vigan bagnet. vigan longganisa. and my colleagues won't get to see my face. plus naps the whole day. hopefully.
     
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  12. Sir iAco

    Sir iAco PhilMUG Addict Member
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    Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) advice for the public: Myth busters

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  13. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mmm....no one is panicking. Except for many people going to Bambang to snap up face masks, there are no hard reports of panic in the PH. Many of them are ordinary employees who are now required by their companies to wear masks while at work. Lots of noise in social media since Pinoys love social media but it is all just talk.

    Banks are still operating normally. Supermarkets are still well-stocked. Ample veggies and seafood in public markets. Buses are still traveling normally. Offices are still operating and so are schools across the country. Churches are still open so are hospitals. Cops are still on the streets as with others.

    Mm...tough one. Singapore is just one big city state. Nowhere to run while the PH has lots of places to ride this out specially in the provinces (my lola's farm in the bondocks is starting to look attractive). Singapore has better medical facilities while ours specially the public hospital is sorely lacking.

    Outside China, Singapore has the highest number of cases. That is worrying because it could indicate local, self-sustaining infection. OR SG has a superior health surveillance system in place vs. her poorer neighbours like Indonesia or the PH (lots on undetected cases?).

    Along with Japan, HK, Thailand and South Korea, those are the countries to monitor to see if there is going to be a serious, region-wide epidemic.
     
    #273 raypin, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
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  14. SE20

    SE20 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    I've been studying the impact of the NCP virus (that's the new official name, right?) on the Chinese economy and the world economy.

    To start with, when SARS hit, China accounted for 4% of the world's GDP. Today, China accounts for 16% of the world's GDP, so the global impact would be likely greater. The estimate for the US economy would be -0.15% of GDP for 2020. As the US has been growing by around 2%, that would mean 1.85%, which may not seem a lot but the margin for error will become slim. (source: NPR)

    China isn't just the epicenter of the outbreak, it's also the epicenter of the global supply chain. Some US companies have moved their sourcing from China to other countries (one I know switched to higher-cost Japan). Wuhan is where a large % of automotive parts are made, so the lockdown would impact the car industry.

    So far, the outlook isn't dire. This is the snapshot as of Feb. 10, 2020... let's see how it develops.
     
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  15. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm...locally, the expected hit is 0.36% off the GDP growth, moving forward. But some private economist estimate a 0.8% hit depending on how long the situation lasts.

    But that is nothing compared to Thailand which is heavily reliant on tourism. Their Minister of Tourism estimates a loss of php 500B (300 B Baht)! And again, depending on how long the situation lasts.
     
    #275 raypin, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
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  16. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm....coronavirus superspreaders or spreaders that exceed the R nought number (stands between 2 to 4, meaning per cycle, one infectee infects 2 to 4 persons).

    https://ph.yahoo.com/news/health-officials-trace-british-patient-202048802.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/business/coronavirus-japan-cruise-ship.html

    The cruise from hell just got worse. Princess Cruises reports that the there are now 135 confirmed cases aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess.....and this all started with just one passenger from HK.

    I read that of those infected by the virus: about 81% have shown mild symptoms/stable condition but 19% are classified as serious/critical cases. Recovery rate (patients discharged) is around 10%. Fatality rate is still around 2%. Based on global numbers.

    So, simple math and to simplify the math in practical terms: if you get this virus, you have a 1 out of 5 chances of getting seriously ill and if you become seriously ill, 1 chance out of 50 of dying from it.

    However, the odds are still much, much better if you are currently outside of China where the virus spread is still very minimal. This is still very much a China problem.
     
    #276 raypin, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
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  17. yehey9

    yehey9 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Is it worse though??
    https://nypost.com/2020/02/10/porn-...-quarantined-on-diamond-princess-cruise-ship/
    just kidding.

    damn, publicity is king, ehh?
    some men just want to watch them hits soar, some men just want to watch uhmm ehhrr....
     
    #277 yehey9, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
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  18. Theus

    Theus PhilMUG Addict Member

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    I swear I read somewhere that many Filipinos are panicking :ROFLMAO:(n)

    latest on local scene:

    5A8A37A0-124C-4D76-BF00-0AF88DD90B6D.jpeg
    source: DOH

    some countries are reporting more confirmed cases for the past few days, it would be great if all pending Ph results prove negative.
     
    #278 Theus, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
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  19. imart

    imart PhilMUG Addict Member

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  20. Sir iAco

    Sir iAco PhilMUG Addict Member
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    The new coronavirus that's sickened more than 42,000 people in China now has an official name: COVID-19. It stands for the coronavirus disease that was discovered in 2019.

    The World Health Organization announced the name Tuesday, saying it was careful to find a name without stigma.

    "We had to find a name that did not refer to a geographical location, an animal, or an individual or group of people," WHO's director-general, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said in a call with reporters.

    It's also easy to pronounce, he added.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...o-covid-19/ar-BBZT5aF?ocid=spartanntp#image=1

    [​IMG]
     
    #280 Sir iAco, Feb 12, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
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