China Telecom

Discussion in 'OS X Server / Xserve / Networking' started by Juice, Dec 28, 2017.

  1. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm....ha ha ha...I’ve forgotten the details of the PLDT-Cojuangco-Pacific-Erap via Jimenez story. Ancient history.

    Re: PT&T and Singson group. Non-starter.

    In any case, I misread. The performance bond is Php 14 Billion, in favor of the Republic. If the Mislatel consortium fails with its commitments/targets, the PH government will be richer by Php 14 Billion.
     
  2. Ghibli

    Ghibli Well-Known Member

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    Just like ending crime in a span of 3-6 months or else, he'll resign? lol a trapo's promise.

    Anyways, I'm optimistic that once a 3rd player enters the Telecom Industry, services would improve and be more affordable. But I'm weary of China Telecom collaborating with a Duterte crony and considering the numerous failures of the current administration, I don't have much faith with this provisional consortium that reeks of nepotism and cronyism.

    Of all the prospective bidders, we somehow ultimately settled with a Duterte top campaign donor. The writings are on the wall and it's clear as an OLED Display.
     
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  3. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm...been looking at our neighbors. In Thailand, the 3rd largest Telco there is Thai-Chinese consortium (with 25 million subscribers). Seems to be working out for them.

    Now about the bidding, there’s bidding and there’s bidding bidding (pre-ordained). I know that from experience (in another industry). I just hope that the bidding here is the former and not the later. If it is the later, well, all I can say is you can’t keep it a secret for long. It will always leak out.

    The reputation of Chinese companies abroad is not exactly stellar. They don’t have the equivalent of, say, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of the US. American companies are strictly forbidden from you know what in order to gain contracts abroad. The US Justice Dept and US Congress will get your ass if you do not follow the rules.

    Just sayin’.

    BTT, I’ve been looking for the meaning of Mislatel, the name of the winning consortium. Found it. It is the Mindanao Islamic Telephone Company.

    https://www.thecorpusjuris.com/legislative/republic-acts/ra-no-8627.php
     
    #123 raypin, Nov 11, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2018
  4. rbenzon

    rbenzon Super
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    In an idealized “free market”, the government is supposed to take a laissez-faire stance. Competition among corporate self-interests is supposed to benefit consumers, in principle.

    In principle. Under the assumption that capitalism is good for all.

    But,…capitalism, at its core, is fundamentally flawed.

    Akin to two debating inmates—no matter who wins the argument, telcos and consumers are stuck in the prison that is capitalism.

    But then, most people are prisoners of their own delusions—especially the self-proclaimed Thinking Class :D, who are clueless about the true nature of reality (presumably because they’re too lazy to learn quantum mechanics, or they’re too in love hearing their delusional selves).

    Then again, prison sounds relevant, since we’re talking about *cell* phones. :) So yeah, in prisonciple, competition should improve cell service. Do governments do enough? No. Because to break the shackles of capitalism requires a revolution. :rolleyes:
     
  5. Hero33

    Hero33 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    To quote the Matrix: Ignorance is bliss.
     
  6. Juice

    Juice PhilMUG Addict Member
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    In my opinion, I think we'll still be plagued by slow internet regardless of who the 3rd telecom player is. If PLDT and Globe are trying to out do each other, then one of them should have been the better service already. But, until now, that seems to be an opinion only. The only thing that will be competitive is their prices. I really hope I'm wrong.
     
  7. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm...I think Mislatel will give a much better service. They have a lot riding on it (Php 14 billion peformance bond). Since they will be building a virgin telecom infrastructure, it means that they can use the latest in telecom technology while the duopoly are still stuck with upgrading their existing infra. It also means that their network will not be congested. It will take time before their subscriber base grows to significant levels.
     
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  8. marky2115

    marky2115 Active Member

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    I'd be suprised if Udenna can get huge loans from banks. Dennis Uy was on a buying spree the past few years.
     
    #128 marky2115, Nov 12, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2018
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  9. Hero33

    Hero33 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Well with a 15B bond, I doubt the government will allow a huge debt-equity ratio, especially if its gonna be feasible. Government practically saying "you better have capital".

    Then you start balancing constitutional limitations and wonder... hmmm
     
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  10. rdy0329

    rdy0329 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    SM is using Comclark. which is partially owned by PLDT. Comclark also owns Converge in Metro Manila. Henry Sy's Mantra must be "not everything you can do, you should do."

    Look at JG Summit Holdings (Gokongwei) and their divestment of Sun Cellular, the moment the industry shifted to mobile data, they know they'll lose. Suddenly, calls and texts didn't matter as much anymore and they've dug themselves in a hole by offering P799 unli 3G. LTE deployment entails additional round of CAPEX something they might be hesitant to push through with due to low margins that they brought onto themselves. My point is, the race to the bottom should be avoided this time. I bet that's also partly the reason why San Miguel backed out of it's plans. The environment changes so fast (5-8 years interval) that by the time they launch an all-LTE network, 5G, will rear it's ugly head next year. Case in point, LTE coverage is still wanting yet a little birdy told me that Globe is already focusing their efforts on 5G.

    I know the market is smart enough to judge and adjust as evidenced by Globe's increased market share due to better customer service/innovation or by Converge's rise in popularity because of the great value proposition that led to PLDT to increase Plan 1899 to 25Mbps.

    Basta, I'm up for paying a certain premium for better overall service. That's one thing I learned from being charged an arm and a leg by Apple.

    I agree there's something fishy with the bid process. You have these two small market players who are willing to expand and already has some facilities set up in our soil yet NTC decided to award a foreign telco with no facilities here and a conglomerate with no telco business history. NTC made damn sure that at least one requirement on the check list is harder to fulfill for the other two aspiring telco. How the hell did they come up with PHP 700M as the required cash bond?

    PT&T has been around for ages now, catering to corporate and they do have at least 1 cable landing in PH. Nakaka hinayang lang to be honest.
     
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  11. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm...Well, if they can’t come up with a mere 700 m php cash bond in order to prequalify for the bidding, it is safe to say that they do not have the financial resources to go into the telecom business which requires billions more. I think that’s the point. Separate the small fry from the whale. We need a player strong enough to compete with the duopoly. There’s an unanswered question about the Villar-Korean Telecom last-minute non-participation. Why did they back out? Inquiring minds want to know. :D
     
  12. Hero33

    Hero33 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    lol I believe there's a reddit post which explains all that :D ;)

    Hopefully we get a real new player soon. This is the perfect time because there seems to be a standard next gen technology blooming so theyll be riding the full wave of next gen for at least 5-10 more years.
     
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  13. Juice

    Juice PhilMUG Addict Member
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    I'm also counting on the smaller starter base, which will definitely give faster performance or service. But, in the long run, i'm hoping it will stay that way. I believe the billion peso performance bond is only limited to certain tasks.
     
  14. rdy0329

    rdy0329 PhilMUG Addict Member

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    I mean, it's a bond, something you can't actually make use of for a set period. Small fry and whale argument only applies if you look at the right checklist. We have 2 operating "small-fry" contenders versus a relatively new conglomerate with little to no experience. Just as with Globe, any of the two "small-fry" can take out loans to fund their capex. Something the banks might be drooling for (due to gov't backing).

    To put into perspective, Globe has spent an average of P40B ($800M) every year since the start of their network modernization program last 2011. All these spending to get to where we are today. Even if China Telecoms has deep pockets, it will still boil down to deployment period. Let's see how our gov can make it easy for the new entrant. At the current system, China Telecom might catch up in about 5 years if they really go all out (pay grease money, spend on the latest tech as well as pay competent people).

    Globe's ARPU is steadily increasing for postpaid users. Plan 1799 is the new 999 (599 was fine 5 years ago) while Platinum has been gaining steam. The Airplane Class business model works well with our market. I just hope Globe doesn't take postpaid users like us for granted. I always keep hearing prepaid friends being able to enjoy almost the same data and voice package for a fraction of what I'm paying. The third telco should also have a similar approach to charging the market or risk profitability when scraping the bottom of the barrel. Sun back then offered cheap plans that are not much more expensive than buying load, which ultimately hurt their bottom line.

    SKT and Converge already has a deployment agreement to cover the whole PH. Villar might have approached them for backbone partnership but Converge's ambition might be too big to let go of a crucial card down the line.

    Confusing fact: Converge's founder and CEO is also named Dennis Uy. I had to do further research because Converge backed out of bidding for the 3rd slot last Nov 7th citing unnecessary requirements that serves no clear purpose other than money-making. Another sayang moment for our Gov't. Converge's expansion plan already includes covering whole PH with fiber which can easily be retrofitted to serve as the backbone for cell towers.
     
  15. ice

    ice PhilMUG Addict Member

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    IMO - This third telco will work... Because it's the present administration's project.

    Same reason why their pushing to complete all those build projects...

    And same reason why the Metro subway will break ground soon...

    After this admin? who knows what will happen next.
     
  16. Juice

    Juice PhilMUG Addict Member
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    I don't want to start a political debate, but I know the projects being completed is from the past administration. Some of them, even before that. The surety bonds and performance bonds from these projects had passed by my desk(I'm not in government). Projects like these are huge and require plenty of local and foreign reinsurance. The metro subway is a planned project in the making from over 20 years ago. The project cost back then was 3 billion dollars. If they do push this, anyone in the insurance business should be hearing about it. So far, it's only in the news. Don't get me wrong, I do want these projects to push through. If they do, we're all happy, business and convenience for everyone. The only reinsurance broker I know who is qualified to take on billion dollar projects, is Marsh and McLennan. I know their incoming president. So, far no word.

    But anyway, I really hope the third telecom will address the problems we're all having. If not, then we're all stuck with 3 telecoms enriching themselves with no improvements.
     
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  17. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm...monopoly to duopoly to oligopoly? Possible negative behavior but only if the 3 players reach a modus vivendi to price fix the damn market. That is why it is CRUCIAL for government to hold Mislatel accountable with the benchmarks that they have committed. We have a noisy social media, a free press and a grandstanding Senate to make sure of that.

    If history is any guide, more competition will drive down prices and lead to better service. The most obvious example is PLDT. Prior to liberalizing the telephone industry, PLDT had an absolute monopoly. Lousy and expensive service. It took years just to get a landline. I remember my parents had to shell out thousands to buy an existing PLDT landline and thousands more to transfer it. It was that bad. That changed with the entry of new players, Bayantel and Globe. Now, you can get a landline in days in most parts of the country and the cost of service is a fraction of what it was.

    My feeling is it will be the opposite. The market pie is not growing as fast as to accomodate a third player. Which means Mislatel is looking at taking away market share from the duopoly. Which means they have to be aggressive from the very start. Which means the duopoly will be desperate to defend its market share. Which means a PRICE WAR. Who wins? *US*. That is my prediction.
     
    #137 raypin, Nov 13, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
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  18. ice

    ice PhilMUG Addict Member

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    I agree... Let's not make a debate...

    But remember Arroyo's Chinese train? And PNoy's Japanese train?

    And do we really need 1k kms mileage test for the new MRTs?

    Sad reality is that administration will have its projects and opposition will start reviewing them once the take over after the next election.

    ***
    Back to the 3rd telco topic... If they can guarantee excellent speeds and inter-connectivity (to Smart and Globe) when I'm in Metro Manila... You can count me in.
     
  19. rbenzon

    rbenzon Super
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    Until the third telco launches, this thread will contain mostly speculations—and musings that will probably be heard by policy-makers like a dropped call. :)

    Nevertheless, here's my two-cent top-up. :)

    Our Air (spectrum) was auctioned by the (previous) government to a bunch of capitalists, who bottled up our air, made them scarce, choking us with high prices—so they can make their profit targets. Think about that for a second: Our Air.

    Spectrum, just like the air we breathe, is literally a common wealth, a natural common wealth. There is also artificial common wealth, such as language, which humans developed but is not owned by anyone in particular; hence, the freedom of speech, which gives you the inalienable right to curse like a president. :D

    More recently, the Internet gave rise to a new class of artificial common wealth, peer-produced common wealth, such as open source software (Linux, Apache, Python, Mozilla, etc.)—produced by, used by, and owned by the commons.

    In telco, there are now community-developed technologies, such as OpenBTS, Village Telco, etc. But would their use be allowed to benefit the people? Of course not. Because the capitalists have bribed the trapos to give them congressional franchises, essentially granting them exclusive use of Our Air, to gag us with it, for profit.

    Smart’s wireless franchise expired recently, and was renewed, presumably for at least 20 years—which is idiocy. Thinking Class pa more. :D Technology is advancing so rapidly, there will soon be a way to dynamically allocate/utilize frequency, without having to grant long-term exclusive franchises to telcos.

    Until this fundamental flaw of exploiting common wealth for capitalists' self-interest, the third telco will just be just a band-aid—a welcome relief, but temporary and only skin deep.
     
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  20. raypin

    raypin PhilMUG Addict Member

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    Mm...yes, but the telcos contributes to national development. In 2014, PLDT paid nearly Php 10B in corporate taxes. Globe paid half that. What about eVAT collections? The government indirectly earns from leasing those spectrum/radio frequencies at no cost to government. The alternative is government-owned and operated telco (a monopoly).

    They can’t even supply us with car plates and plastic driver’s license. Run-down PNR? Overcrowded PGH? Slow Philpost?

    It is going to be very cheap (the government does not care about profits) but it is a foregone conclusion that the service will be the worst in the world.
     

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