Will the iPad eventually replace the Mac?

[Salaryman Ryan]

Interesting article in PC that might be worthy of discussion. I just read this article from PC Mag:

Apple's iPad could kill the Mac

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2361204,00.asp

Summary: Basically the article claims that although the iPad will just be a accessory for the Mac TODAY - in the near future, as the iPad gets more powerful hardware, gets more desktop power class apps and the OS evolves and becomes an independent entity in itself, it will gradually erode the Mac's share in the consumer space (starting with the Macbooks). Eventually only niche professionals (who needs very powerful hardware) will be the Mac's only market.

According to the author, if the iPhone OS does eventually take over it will mean the end of open computing on Apple systems as we know it. So it possibly means, good bye to stuff like bittorrent, good bye to open programing, good bye to customizing your Apple's portable hardware and software. Etc




"If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth — and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago." - Steve Jobs As quoted in Fortune (1996-02-19)


My take:

If (and thats a big "IF") the iPad initially becomes a success this next 5 years, I agree that casual computing for consumers might end up taking this shape for the following years to come. I'm not just talking about just Apple, other companies might follow suit, Google already have similar plans while Microsoft also have their version of their Tablet OS etc.

I'm sure It is good for the mass market such as my aunties, grandmom and all my non-techie friends who simply want to check their Facebook accounts, read email and watch Youtube videos - finally they have a device that is much less complex and easier to use then your average laptop (Believe me, the window and menu bar metaphor in OSX/Windows drives them mad). But I can see potential problems for content creators/Professionals who need OSX to do their work. I maybe wrong but I can see that if Apple gets the majority of their profits from the iPhone and iPad then that is where they will focus on and relegate the Macintosh to mainly a niche status. So what this pertains to our favorite platform? Your guess is as good as mine. I guess the market will decide.

PS: Take note guys, we are talking about what might happen in the near future not what is going on today. Macs are selling better then ever today but the future may hold something different for us.

[bad_boy]

Hmm. I think this is possible, but not in the near future. It would require technology that isn't available today.

Aside from the obvious portable comparison, a larger and more powerful iPad (combined with the right peripherals) could theoretically replace even an iMac.

Just my thoughts

[bacchus_3]

But I can see potential problems for content creators/Professionals who need OSX to do their work. I maybe wrong but I can see that if Apple gets the majority of their profits from the iPhone and iPad then that is where they will focus on and relegate the Macintosh to mainly a niche status. So what this pertains to our favorite platform? Your guess is as good as mine. I guess the market will decide.

I share the same thought on this. I'd think that the iPhone OS and Mac OS X will meet half-way to come up with ultraportal systems. Think iPad running Mac OS X with Photoshop but with a new gesture system that is void of the mouse and keyboard. The OS is very dynamic and who knows what is available in the next 5 years. Apple went so far with the iPhone OS in just 2 to 3 years.

[cyberathlete]

interesting article. may be possible but i don't think end-to-end consumer devices like version x.x of the ipad will fully replace laptops or computers. there will always be a demand for open computing. even if apple and/or microsoft will pull the plug on open OS, the linux community will never accept this and might even push them to produce more "friendlier" open OS (imagine a bug-free ubuntu! ~ ). hardware might be an issue though, if end-to-end computing makes a big impact on the market, there will be lesser demand for "specialized" PC hardware (processors, mobos, hd, etc) making them more expensive.

[penmanila]

folks, some of us have to do some real work, on real work machines. for at least the next decade, that will still mean big screens and, yes, keyboards. i don't think apple's going to leave that market anytime soon, because it's to the pro market that they sell their most expensive hardware and software. my 2 cents'

[Salaryman Ryan]

folks, some of us have to do some real work, on real work machines. for at least the next decade, that will still mean big screens and, yes, keyboards. my 2 cents'

My unfounded worry here is not that the Mac will disappear (I'm pretty sure there will always be a market for full workstations) but rather it will be relegated to niche status by Apple which means Macs will become specialized tools content creation. What so bad about it? Well three things:

1) First, general purpose computing might move to the devices like the iPad. Since the iPad will be the bigger market, software developers will focus less on the Mac and give their quality software to the iPad. We will have less quality software on the Mac.

2) A factor that drove the Mac's price down (beside the cheap availability of computer components) and make them innovate the Mac line is Apple's desire to capture the majority of the market. Now potentially the iPad can take over that role.

Which means only a few professionals will use the Macintosh and the platform might end up like the Sun Workstations in the 1990 which are pretty much specialized and very expensive. As cyberathlete said, this could make PC parts expensive again as there will be less demand overall. (and companies will love this trend because currently margins on PC parts are very very thin)

3) Third, if other companies find Apple's closed (itune/app store) software and hardware (sealed and propriety everything) system appealing it might gradually cross over to other platforms like Windows and eventually become the status quo.

I believe Linux was mentioned but it has 3 fundamental problems. First very little major commercial software brands develop for Linux. Second, even within the Linux community there is no one single standard for things like user interface which make difficult for both consumers to adopt and developers to make software for it. And third despite of all improvements within the Linux community you still need to be a geek to use it - unlike OSX.

[kikoreta]

This will only be possible if the iPad gets killer speed with killer memory and connect with peripherals easily (bluetooth to a 30 inch flatscreen?) That way you can easily connect to your office when you get there yet maintain its portability. I think it will have to be running a full version of osx tho as a lot of us will not be able to give up our open lifestyle.

[penmanila]

i think salaryman's point was that the ipad would not replace the mac machine-for-machine but would edge it out of or overtake it in apple's product line.

[chetiboy]

i think there's gonna be a niche market with hand held larger devices.
but not to replace the mac i think.
there's gonna be a surge of ipad kind of things, like the time when the ipod was introduced... or the time when netbooks boomed.

i still wish there was a mac netbook though. would it make me old school? haha!

[raypin]

That's a myopic view, but who can argue about Apple's future when Steve Jobs has declared that Apple is now a mobile company. Keyword is mobile. That is an astounding statement. Only funeral services remain for the Macs and eventually the MacBooks.

If you are talking about mobile devices in pure numbers, that article is absolutely correct. Mobiles now outnumber desktop computers and the massive shift in trend clearly shows that. Google has a similar vision of the future of consumer computing devices. In the '60s, mainframe computers numbered in the tens of thousands. In the '70s, mini-mainframes eclipsed mainframes and numbered in the hundreds of thousands. In the '80s and '90s, desktop computers rendered obsolete the mini-mainframes and numbered in the tens of millions (and it is very clear that Microsoft is the clear winner). By the year 2000-2010, laptops, netbooks and MacBooks have taken over the lead and numbered in the hundreds of millions. The big bet is in the next decade or so is that all these previous devices will be dwarfed by ultra portables like even powerful smartphones, tablets, MIDs and other hybrids and will number in the billions. In short, it is the factor of 10 at work.

Is that a healthy development? It is not yet clear, but Google's move to put everything on the cloud (and to a lesser extent, Microsoft's bet on Azure) is just another piece of the puzzle. Apple is building a huge data center in North Carolina. Nobody knows just yet what it is for but I'm betting that Apple is secretly working on it's own version of cloud computing to complement it's vision of being a totally mobile company (meaning goodbye Macs and MacBooks). What it sorely lacks is a viable search engine, thus a myopic vision. This is crucial because the search engine is now the de facto window or portal to the rest of the internet. At present, only Bing/Yahoo and Google stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field.

Personally, I don't like it but am I in the minority? Truthfully, yes.